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Game Spread: Arthur Fils (-2.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+2.5)

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alex MichelsenLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $8.9KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils
0.0¢
Arthur Fils payout
100.0¢
Alex Michelsen payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:2 trades$4.0K trackedsource coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 182 min agoofficial metadata 39 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$4.0K@ 48¢·0xf12f…b30f

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex Michelsen. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins 2.5 or more total games than Alex Michelsen in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Arthur Fils could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins 2.5 or more total games than Alex Michelsen in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Arthur Fils could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 39m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 39m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe468…6e3f3 linked markets · $309 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Alex Michelsen. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $0
6hAlex Michelsen · $4.0K
24hAlex Michelsen · $4.0K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Alex Michelsen fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h52.49¢▼ below by 52.5pp
VWAP 7d52.49¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$30
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.