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UFC Fight Night: Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (Flyweight, Prelims)

Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $9.9KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (Flyweight, Prelims)

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Mitch Raposo
—
Marcos Degli
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:3 trades$69 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 214 min agoofficial metadata 1463 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarcos Degli$6.3K@ 67¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$34
tracked
$69

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Mitch Raposo" if Mitch Raposo is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marcos Degli at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, scheduled for November 7, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Marcos Degli" if Marcos Degli is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Mitch Raposo" if Mitch Raposo is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marcos Degli at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, scheduled for November 7, 2026. It will resolve to "Marcos Degli" if Marcos Degli is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mitch Raposo; negative values favor Marcos Degli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMitch Raposo · $0
6hMarcos Degli · $34
24hMarcos Degli · $49

Mitch Raposo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mitch Raposo price. Marcos Degli fills are converted to the complementary Mitch Raposo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h31.15¢
VWAP 7d32.98¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mitch Raposo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$6.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.