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Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $3.7KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Daniil Medvedev
—
Adrian Mannarino
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:3 trades$25 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 18 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$9
tracked
$25

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-06 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Adrian Mannarino, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniil Medvedev can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Adrian Mannarino in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Adrian Mannarino, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniil Medvedev can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1e3b…e2322 linked markets · $142 gross
0x7be1…200e2 linked markets · $57 gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $19 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $0
6hDaniil Medvedev · $9
24hDaniil Medvedev · $9

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h53.7¢
VWAP 7d53.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$17
50¢
$8
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev
0.05¢$446.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)
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Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$626priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
—$569priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
—$228priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev
—$125priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5
—$12priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.