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Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote 22 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $173.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $617.2KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · 22 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Daniil Medvedev
99.9¢
Carlos Alcaraz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:119 trades$232.2K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 22 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $21.3K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$41.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$18.0K@ 88¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $3.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.7K
6h
−$54.9K
tracked
$232.2K

8 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $21.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 22 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x8e38…54b63 linked markets · $67 gross
0xefae…9d8e2 linked markets · $55 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 89.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Daniil Medvedev DOWN 5.6pp · near-book depth $4.2K → $1.0K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $3.7K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $54.9K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $66.6K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h14.76¢▼ below by 14.7pp
VWAP 7d14.76¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$49.9K
25¢
$13.7K
20¢
$11.3K
15¢
$13.5K
10¢
$59.4K
5¢
$31.7K
0¢
← now
$52.7K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$14.8K@ 99.9¢
Fadepix0xc6fd…f43e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.4K@ 92.5¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.2K@ 92.3¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$18.0K@ 88.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$11.7K@ 67.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Daniil Medvedev (+1.5)
—$11.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
—$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5
—$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$607priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
—$27priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Carlos Alcaraz$53.7K
BUY VWAP 91.60¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesCarlos Alcaraz$27.4K
BUY VWAP 86.93¢·14 fills
KkunnDaniil Medvedev$18.0K
BUY VWAP 31.69¢·5 fills
ferrariChampions2026Carlos Alcaraz$11.7K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
FadepixCarlos Alcaraz$11.3K
BUY VWAP 76.00¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.