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Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $2.5KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Daniil Medvedev
—
Carlos Alcaraz
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:6 trades$37 trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 79 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$11
tracked
$37

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Daniil Medvedev” if Daniil Medvedev wins set 2. It will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Daniil Medvedev” if Daniil Medvedev wins set 2. It will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x8e38…54b63 linked markets · $67 gross
0xefae…9d8e2 linked markets · $55 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $0
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $11
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $11

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h33.56¢
VWAP 7d33.56¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$4
35¢
$24
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$9
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
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Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5
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Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
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Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.