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Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Daniil Medvedev (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $11.1KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Carlos Alcaraz
—
Daniil Medvedev
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:5 trades$3.9K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 94 min agoofficial metadata 78 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCarlos Alcaraz$2.1K@ 100¢·Khalipa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3.6K
tracked
$3.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 94 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Daniil Medvedev, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Daniil Medvedev, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x8e38…54b63 linked markets · $67 gross
0xefae…9d8e2 linked markets · $55 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $0
6hDaniil Medvedev · $3.6K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $3.4K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h70.86¢
VWAP 7d70.86¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$2.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$250
40¢
$12
35¢
$29
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
—$617.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
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Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$607priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
—$27priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.