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Set Handicap: Lilli Tagger (-1.5) vs Harriet Dart (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $2.7KEvent: Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Harriet Dart

Polymarket indicative prices · 14 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Lilli Tagger
99.95¢
Harriet Dart
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%
24h sample:4 trades$105 trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$20
6h
+$55
tracked
$105

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 49 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lilli Tagger" if Lilli Tagger wins by 2 or more sets than Harriet Dart, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Harriet Dart."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Lilli Tagger can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Harriet Dart."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lilli Tagger and Harriet Dart in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Lilli Tagger" if Lilli Tagger wins by 2 or more sets than Harriet Dart, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Harriet Dart." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Lilli Tagger can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Harriet Dart." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xdbdd…a5de3 linked markets · $298 gross
0x73a4…40072 linked markets · $262 gross
0xc54d…8be12 linked markets · $22 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lilli Tagger; negative values favor Harriet Dart. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHarriet Dart · $20
6hLilli Tagger · $55
24hLilli Tagger · $45

Lilli Tagger price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lilli Tagger price. Harriet Dart fills are converted to the complementary Lilli Tagger probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h52.39¢▼ below by 52.3pp
VWAP 7d52.39¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lilli Tagger price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$25
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$50
50¢
$10
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$20
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.