Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.
Data confidence 25% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Outcome Price History
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Largest holders
YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.