PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 2 monthsLiquidity: $86.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $213.6KEvent: Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
5.2¢
YES
94.8¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:50 trades$42.2K trackedsource coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $6.4K net·4 wallets·$6.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$9.3K@ 93¢·MrNoItAll

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$9
6h
−$23.3K
tracked
$42.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $6.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $9
6hNO · $23.3K
24hNO · $25.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.2¢
VWAP 24h7.3¢▼ below by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d7.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$11.5K
5¢
← now
$30.5K
0¢
$1.5K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
91.3¢$812.1Kpriority37Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
78.5¢$636.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12.5¢$204.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
76.5¢$170.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?
98.0¢$166.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
9.5¢$149.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
30.5¢$88.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.