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Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $334.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $347.0KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

61.5¢
Lorenzo Musetti
38.5¢
Luca Van Assche
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:152 trades$124.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Musetti · $6.7K net·11 wallets·$11.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLorenzo Musetti$14.5K@ 75¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Lorenzo Musetti SETUP
What the tape says

Lorenzo Musetti pressure: $1.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.8K
6h
+$34.1K
tracked
$124.5K

11 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Musetti · $6.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 56

Since latest market sweep: -16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lorenzo Musetti or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Luca Van Assche in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Luca Van Assche. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Lorenzo Musetti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x93dc…37282 linked markets · $30 gross
0x45b8…3c282 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Luca Van Assche@ 55.0¢48m ago
15m INVALIDATED -24.0pp
Latest book event: Lorenzo Musetti UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $29.3K → $98.3K · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Musetti; negative values favor Luca Van Assche. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Musetti · $1.8K
6hLorenzo Musetti · $34.1K
24hLorenzo Musetti · $33.6K

Lorenzo Musetti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Musetti price. Luca Van Assche fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Musetti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h64.45¢▼ below by 2.9pp
VWAP 7d64.45¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Musetti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$18.6K
70¢
$55.0K
65¢
$10.0K
60¢
← now
$3.0K
55¢
$6.5K
50¢
$2.5K
45¢
$13.3K
40¢
$14.9K
35¢
$763
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLorenzo Musetti$14.5K@ 75.29¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Lorenzo Musetti (-3.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+3.5)
13.5¢$20.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
0.05¢$12.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 22.5
68.0¢$2.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Musetti (-1.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+1.5)
1.95¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
50.0¢$969priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 23.5
63.5¢$119priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Luca Van Assche: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.5¢$87priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LimousinLorenzo Musetti$15.4K
BUY VWAP 71.14¢·4 fills
kkookkooLorenzo Musetti$14.5K
BUY VWAP 75.29¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.