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Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $12.5KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Lorenzo Musetti
99.95¢
Luca Van Assche
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%
24h sample:8 trades$2.4K trackedsource coverage 19%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLuca Van Assche$1.0K@ 100¢·0xd220…fc0b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$559
6h
+$559
tracked
$2.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins the first set. It will resolve to “Luca Van Assche” if Luca Van Assche wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Luca Van Assche in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins the first set. It will resolve to “Luca Van Assche” if Luca Van Assche wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x93dc…37282 linked markets · $30 gross
0x45b8…3c282 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Musetti; negative values favor Luca Van Assche. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Musetti · $559
6hLorenzo Musetti · $559
24hLorenzo Musetti · $559

Lorenzo Musetti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Musetti price. Luca Van Assche fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Musetti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h19.68¢▼ below by 19.6pp
VWAP 7d19.68¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Musetti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$340
45¢
$381
40¢
$82
35¢
$98
30¢
$17
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$429
0¢
← now
$1.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
61.5¢$380.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Lorenzo Musetti (-3.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+3.5)
45.5¢$20.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
92.5¢$6.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 22.5
98.0¢$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Musetti (-1.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+1.5)
4.65¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢$119priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Luca Van Assche: Total Sets O/U 2.5
91.5¢$87priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.