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Game Spread: Lorenzo Musetti (-3.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $20.1KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

30.5¢
Lorenzo Musetti
69.5¢
Luca Van Assche
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution28Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:9 trades$6.1K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Van Assche$4.0K@ 55¢·0xf12f…b30f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$2.1K
tracked
$6.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 64 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lorenzo Musetti" if Lorenzo Musetti wins 3.5 or more total games than Luca Van Assche in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Luca Van Assche".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Lorenzo Musetti could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Luca Van Assche".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Lorenzo Musetti" if Lorenzo Musetti wins 3.5 or more total games than Luca Van Assche in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Luca Van Assche". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Lorenzo Musetti could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Luca Van Assche". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x93dc…37282 linked markets · $30 gross
0x45b8…3c282 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Lorenzo Musetti UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $1 → $9 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Musetti; negative values favor Luca Van Assche. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Musetti · $0
6hLuca Van Assche · $2.1K
24hLuca Van Assche · $2.1K

Lorenzo Musetti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Musetti price. Luca Van Assche fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Musetti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.5¢
VWAP 24h48.08¢▼ below by 17.6pp
VWAP 7d48.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Musetti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.0K
45¢
$3
40¢
$4.0K
35¢
$20
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
61.5¢$380.1Kpriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
0.05¢$12.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
92.5¢$6.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 22.5
98.0¢$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Musetti (-1.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+1.5)
4.65¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢$119priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Luca Van Assche: Total Sets O/U 2.5
91.5¢$87priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.