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Bitcoin Up or Down on November 8?

Crypto→Settlement: DownLiquidity: $93.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $94.6KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on November 8?
0.0¢
Up payout
100.0¢
Down payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown$48.2K@ 100¢·kaanha

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Down. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-08 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUp · $0
6hDown · $68.7K
24hDown · $64.9K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h10.8¢▼ below by 10.8pp
VWAP 7d10.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.4K
75¢
$0
70¢
$4.7K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.7K
50¢
$2.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$72.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDown$48.2K@ 99.9¢
kaanha0x4060…3ec3
🐋—2 days ago
BUYDown$11.2K@ 99.8¢0x1875…a782🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kaanhaDown$48.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x1875…a782Down$11.2K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.