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Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-4.5) vs Casper Ruud (+4.5)

● quote 209 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · 209 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

42.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz
58.0¢
Casper Ruud
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$6.2K trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCasper Ruud$6.2K@ 59¢·0xf12f…b30f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Casper Ruud pressure: $6.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.2K
6h
−$6.2K
tracked
$6.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 209 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Casper Ruud or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 4.5 or more total games than Casper Ruud in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Casper Ruud".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Casper Ruud".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 4.5 or more total games than Casper Ruud in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Casper Ruud". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Casper Ruud". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Casper Ruud. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCasper Ruud · $6.2K
6hCasper Ruud · $6.2K
24hCasper Ruud · $6.2K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Casper Ruud fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.0¢
VWAP 24h41.15¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d41.15¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$6.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz
17.5¢$86.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 21.5
49.0¢$6.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Casper Ruud (+1.5)
60.0¢$797priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5
41.0¢$73priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz
25.0¢$17priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casper Ruud vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
32.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz
24.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
22.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.