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Set 2 Winner: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton

● quote 98 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $5.7KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton

Indicative prices · 98 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

29.5¢
Luca Van Assche
70.5¢
Ben Shelton
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection94Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:4 trades$2.8K trackedsource coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBen Shelton$2.7K@ 63¢·0xdbdd…a5de

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Ben Shelton pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
−$2.6K
tracked
$2.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 98 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ben Shelton or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Luca Van Assche” if Luca Van Assche wins set 2. It will resolve to “Ben Shelton” if Ben Shelton wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Ben Shelton in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to “Luca Van Assche” if Luca Van Assche wins set 2. It will resolve to “Ben Shelton” if Ben Shelton wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf12f…b30f2 linked markets · $6.5K gross
Paul9739732 linked markets · $4.0K gross
erhher2 linked markets · $3.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luca Van Assche; negative values favor Ben Shelton. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBen Shelton · $2.6K
6hBen Shelton · $2.6K
24hBen Shelton · $2.6K

Luca Van Assche price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luca Van Assche price. Ben Shelton fills are converted to the complementary Luca Van Assche probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h37.09¢▼ below by 7.6pp
VWAP 7d37.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luca Van Assche price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$86
35¢
$2.7K
30¢
$20
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton
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Set 1 Winner: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton
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Set Handicap: Ben Shelton (-1.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+1.5)
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Game Spread: Ben Shelton (-3.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+3.5)
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Assche vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Assche vs. Shelton: Match O/U 23.5
82.0¢$764priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Luca Van Assche vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5
62.5¢$107priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Assche vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$12priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.