PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

● quote 1351 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $291.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $146.4KEvent: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$26.3K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1474 min agoofficial metadata 272 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$99.8K@ 100¢·aff3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$26.3K
tracked
$26.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$3.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 7 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 1351 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1474 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-12-31 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 22h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
tsybka3 linked markets · $191.7K gross
0x4d0e…c45b2 linked markets · $31.0K gross
0xab19…48763 linked markets · $30.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY YES@ 97.9¢2d ago
15m STALLED +0.8pp1h STALLED +1.1pp6h STALLED +1.7pp24h STALLED +1.6pp
ANTI CHASEBUY YES2d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 87.9¢2d ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.8pp1h CONFIRMED +11.5pp6h CONFIRMED +11.5pp24h CONFIRMED +11.6pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$26.3K
24h+$26.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h99.9¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d94.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$168.1K
90¢
$47.2K
85¢
$121.6K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$24.9K@ 99.9¢0xab19…4876🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$99.8K@ 99.8¢
aff30xe52c…6924
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$14.5K@ 92.4¢
tsybka0xd5cc…dea4
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 90.0¢
tsybka0xd5cc…dea4
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$27.1K@ 87.0¢
tsybka0xd5cc…dea4
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$60.9K@ 86.9¢
tsybka0xd5cc…dea4
🐋—2 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
47.3¢$220.5Kpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
1.3¢$196.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
86.0¢$142.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17.5¢$136.6Kpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
59.5¢$136.5Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.9¢$126.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
4.5¢$111.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tsybkaYes$129.1K
BUY VWAP 88.6¢·6 fills
aff3Yes$108.2K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·2 fills
0xab19…4876Yes$26.3K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.