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Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama

● quote 537 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $25.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $362.7KEvent: Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama

Indicative prices · 537 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Maximus Jones
99.9¢
Sho Katayama
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution15Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:57 trades$218.7K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 60%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 564 min agoofficial metadata 534 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maximus Jones · $77 net·3 wallets·$166 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSho Katayama$80.7K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$218.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: Maximus Jones · $77 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 537 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 564 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 534 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 03:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maximus Jones and Sho Katayama in the Matsuyama, Japan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 10:20PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maximus Jones' if Maximus Jones advances against Sho Katayama. This market will resolve to 'Sho Katayama' if Sho Katayama advances against Maximus Jones. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Maximus Jones10h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPSELL Maximus Jones@ 42.0¢10h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Maximus Jones10h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Maximus Jones@ 53.0¢10h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Sho Katayama UP 12.0pp · near-book depth $7.2K → $37 · 28s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maximus Jones; negative values favor Sho Katayama. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMaximus Jones · $0
6hMaximus Jones · $0
24hMaximus Jones · $37.0K

Maximus Jones price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maximus Jones price. Sho Katayama fills are converted to the complementary Maximus Jones probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h29.55¢▼ below by 29.4pp
VWAP 7d29.55¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maximus Jones price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$4
80¢
$1
75¢
$1
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3.7K
55¢
$43.1K
50¢
$9.9K
45¢
$19.2K
40¢
$14.1K
35¢
$47.8K
30¢
$201
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$80.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLSho Katayama$80.7K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLMaximus Jones$13.6K@ 56.81¢
TennisAce10xa3e1…2b3b
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYMaximus Jones$23.3K@ 56.41¢
TennisAce10xa3e1…2b3b
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYMaximus Jones$14.4K@ 48.02¢
TennisAce10xa3e1…2b3b
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYSho Katayama$12.7K@ 62.03¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYSho Katayama$10.0K@ 63.99¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYSho Katayama$10.0K@ 63.97¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstSho Katayama$56.1K
BUY VWAP 62.48¢·7 fills
TennisAce1Maximus Jones$37.7K
BUY VWAP 52.88¢·2 fills
LiquidifierSho Katayama$14.1K
BUY VWAP 48.63¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.