PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

● quote 14846 min ago
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 2 monthsLiquidity: $9.8KOfficial 24h Vol: —
13.2¢
YES
86.8¢
NO
17.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution9Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$3 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1328 min agoofficial metadata unavailable

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$3

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
17.4¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 14846 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1328 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 17.4¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $3

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.2¢
VWAP 24h19.0¢▼ below by 5.8pp
VWAP 7d21.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$3
15¢
$8
10¢
← now
$6
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?
93.6¢$395.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
80.5¢$353.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
98.0¢$198.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
98.2¢$188.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
25.5¢$169.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
11.0¢$101.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
77.5¢$100.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.