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Set 2 Winner: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote 224 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $5.2KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Indicative prices · 224 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

57.5¢
Taylor Fritz
42.5¢
Lorenzo Musetti
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection48Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution35Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%
24h sample:3 trades$3.5K trackedsource coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTaylor Fritz$1.4K@ 100¢·0x6e2b…103e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Lorenzo Musetti pressure: $1.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.7K
6h
−$1.7K
tracked
$3.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 224 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lorenzo Musetti or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Taylor Fritz” if Taylor Fritz wins set 2. It will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Taylor Fritz” if Taylor Fritz wins set 2. It will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
redvinny2 linked markets · $34.3K gross
extra182 linked markets · $3.5K gross
fg383dgjdflk22 linked markets · $1.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taylor Fritz; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Musetti · $1.7K
6hLorenzo Musetti · $1.7K
24hLorenzo Musetti · $1.7K

Taylor Fritz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taylor Fritz price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Taylor Fritz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h90.22¢▼ below by 32.7pp
VWAP 7d90.22¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taylor Fritz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$2.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$893
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti
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Taylor Fritz vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.