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Game Spread: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+1.5)

● quote 217 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $3.1KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Indicative prices · 217 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

52.5¢
Taylor Fritz
47.5¢
Lorenzo Musetti
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:3 trades$402 trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 121 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$402
tracked
$402

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 217 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 121 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Taylor Fritz" if Taylor Fritz wins 1.5 or more total games than Lorenzo Musetti in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lorenzo Musetti".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Taylor Fritz could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Lorenzo Musetti".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Taylor Fritz" if Taylor Fritz wins 1.5 or more total games than Lorenzo Musetti in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lorenzo Musetti". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Taylor Fritz could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Lorenzo Musetti". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
redvinny2 linked markets · $34.3K gross
extra182 linked markets · $3.5K gross
fg383dgjdflk22 linked markets · $1.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taylor Fritz; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaylor Fritz · $0
6hTaylor Fritz · $402
24hTaylor Fritz · $402

Taylor Fritz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taylor Fritz price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Taylor Fritz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h54.0¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d54.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taylor Fritz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$402
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti
99.95¢$684.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5
0.05¢$19.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+1.5)
99.95¢$8.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5
0.05¢$7.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti
99.95¢$5.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5
—$320priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Taylor Fritz vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5
41.0¢$86priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. UNCW Seahawks
49.5¢$1.9Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.