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Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5

● quote 225 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $7.8KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Indicative prices · 225 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.0¢
Over
52.0¢
Under
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection87Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%
24h sample:3 trades$2.2K trackedsource coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLUnder$1.8K@ 100¢·0xbbf3…aa3a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Over pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.9K
6h
+$2.2K
tracked
$2.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 225 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Over or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by November 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
redvinny2 linked markets · $34.3K gross
extra182 linked markets · $3.5K gross
fg383dgjdflk22 linked markets · $1.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $1.9K
6hOver · $2.2K
24hOver · $2.2K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.0¢
VWAP 24h7.25¢▲ above by 40.8pp
VWAP 7d7.25¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$290
45¢
← now
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$1.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.