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Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

● quote 19s ago
Politics→Science→Culture→Closes: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $1.8MOfficial 24h Vol: $42.9KEvent: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Indicative prices · 19s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

1.65¢
YES
98.35¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:49 trades$30.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 71%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $72.5K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$109.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$612.1K@ 98¢·0xa2cd…2ba0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$142
6h
−$19.4K
tracked
$30.3K

12 verified profitable wallets: NO · $72.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 81d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.2¢14d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED +0.3pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.2¢16d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED +0.1pp24h STALLED -0.4pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.5¢18d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h STALLED -0.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.9¢19d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $142
6hNO · $19.4K
24hNO · $9.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.65¢
VWAP 24h1.63¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d2.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$182.4K
0¢
← now
$2.1M

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$19.7K@ 98.4¢
llh0x8349…c99d
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLNO$18.4K@ 98.44¢
Ogie0x9747…2823
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$13.7K@ 97.9¢
Lolololol0xa745…8ca6
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$11.3K@ 98.0¢
572849100x856a…4ea2
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$612.1K@ 98.0¢0xa2cd…2ba0🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$386.5K@ 97.91¢0xa2cd…2ba0🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$19.4K@ 98.1¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$44.0K@ 97.23¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$19.1K@ 97.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$31.3K@ 96.84¢
Cangryman20200x3fec…2b67
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$11.4K@ 96.01¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$18.8K@ 96.15¢
DavidTrezeguet0xc88e…f3e1
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$10.3K@ 95.7¢0xc97b…47e5🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$132.5K@ 95.97¢
charliealmanack0xa3a3…c2f9
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$10.7K@ 96.13¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$19.6K@ 95.41¢
afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643
🐋—18 days ago
BUYNO$11.5K@ 95.7¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$13.3K@ 95.8¢
thanksmom0xc0cd…0aa9
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$12.3K@ 95.6¢
alwaysOn0xc550…272d
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$12.2K@ 95.4¢
Zbinik0xa9f3…4bce
🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$68.2K@ 94.96¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—24 days ago
BUYNO$18.0K@ 95.8¢
Bet1nthedark0x8b88…5f5e
🐋—28 days ago
SELLNO$16.0K@ 94.17¢0xd8d5…8935🐋—29 days ago
SELLNO$18.7K@ 95.41¢0xd8d5…8935🐋—29 days ago
SELLNO$10.0K@ 96.8¢
TheGGDream0x8dec…3c20
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$48.4K@ 96.8¢0xdc71…d033🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$21.7K@ 96.8¢
PamBondiBonds0xbcf3…9d88
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$22.6K@ 96.9¢
PamBondiBonds0xbcf3…9d88
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 96.8¢0xf625…55a8🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$11.0K@ 96.5¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$26.3K@ 96.88¢
Phlox0x5c6b…f32b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$14.9K@ 95.7¢
Zbinik0xa9f3…4bce
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$11.7K@ 96.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$10.6K@ 95.7¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$37.5K@ 95.86¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$15.7K@ 96.53¢
aangelika0x2202…8787
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$22.3K@ 97.0¢
PamBondiBonds0xbcf3…9d88
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$12.2K@ 96.11¢
videlake0x6ae1…1e7e
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$28.9K@ 96.1¢
smartttt0xbca1…7181
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$28.9K@ 96.1¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$18.1K@ 96.1¢
Gdub0x0b64…49bd
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$42.0K@ 96.1¢
PamBondiBonds0xbcf3…9d88
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$74.3K@ 96.1¢
Bruce09130x7460…2936
🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$10.0K@ 96.1¢0xffd3…7c75🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$98.4K@ 96.1¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$11.4K@ 95.0¢
MrYo0xe306…627e
🐋—3 months ago
SELLYES$10.0K@ 4.0¢
SCssss0xaf23…377f
🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$11.2K@ 95.0¢
alwaysOn0xc550…272d
🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$11.3K@ 94.0¢
Gdub0x0b64…49bd
🐋—3 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xa2cd…2ba0No$998.6K
BUY VWAP 97.97¢·2 fills
bobe2No$63.1K
BUY VWAP 97.16¢·2 fills
llhNo$25.0K
BUY VWAP 98.29¢·2 fills
LololololNo$20.0K
BUY VWAP 97.65¢·2 fills
StarryPathNo$19.4K
BUY VWAP 98.1¢·1 fill
57284910No$11.3K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.