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Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

● quote just now
Politics→Science→Culture→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $974.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $52.3KEvent: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
3.5¢
YES
96.5¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets59Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:64 trades$16.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $41.6K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$48.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$42.0K@ 96¢·PamBondiBonds

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
−$10.8K
tracked
$16.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $41.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 36d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
bobe22 linked markets · $45.7K gross
0x116b…cf8e2 linked markets · $4.1K gross
AlexiosV2 linked markets · $2.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.8¢3d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h STALLED -0.5pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.1¢5d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED +0.7pp24h STALLED -0.5pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.8¢6d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.8pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.2¢9d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.3pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $3
6hNO · $10.8K
24hNO · $6.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.5¢
VWAP 24h3.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d3.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$674.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.0K@ 96.5¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYNO$26.3K@ 96.9¢
Phlox0x5c6b…f32b
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$14.9K@ 95.7¢
Zbinik0xa9f3…4bce
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$11.7K@ 96.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$10.6K@ 95.7¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$37.5K@ 95.9¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$15.7K@ 96.5¢
aangelika0x2202…8787
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$22.3K@ 97.0¢
PamBondiBonds0xbcf3…9d88
🐋—15 days ago
SELLNO$12.2K@ 96.1¢
videlake0x6ae1…1e7e
🐋—18 days ago
SELLNO$28.9K@ 96.1¢
smartttt0xbca1…7181
🐋—24 days ago
BUYNO$28.9K@ 96.1¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e
🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$18.1K@ 96.1¢
Gdub0x0b64…49bd
🐋—27 days ago
SELLNO$42.0K@ 96.1¢
PamBondiBonds0xbcf3…9d88
🐋—28 days ago
SELLNO$74.3K@ 96.1¢
Bruce09130x7460…2936
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.0K@ 96.1¢0xffd3…7c75🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$98.4K@ 96.1¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$11.4K@ 95.0¢
MrYo0xe306…627e
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLYES$10.0K@ 4.0¢
SCssss0xaf23…377f
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$11.2K@ 95.0¢
alwaysOn0xc550…272d
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$11.3K@ 94.0¢
Gdub0x0b64…49bd
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$42.6K@ 94.0¢0x17c0…8ee9🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bobe2No$42.8K
BUY VWAP 96.1¢·6 fills
PhloxNo$34.0K
BUY VWAP 96.8¢·2 fills
ZbinikNo$14.9K
BUY VWAP 95.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.