MarbleConviction
0x70c14608f9c06ad9a5f48f1d6ddb6c0fc2d41be2
$-23969
Real PnL
-16.2%
ROI
$58.4K
Volume
$148.0K
Invested
18.8%
YES Bias
16
Trades (DB)
9/13
Markets Won
whale6Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24h
Open positions:31 markets·current value $278.8K·8 closed
PnL by Market (39)31 open8 closed
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
● open Yes · $83.3Kin $30.0Kout $90.0Kunreal $-1700
$-15132
● open No · $49.8Kin $16.5Kunreal +$1.4K
● open No · $13.6Kin $13.5Kunreal +$137
● open No · $25.9Kin $11.1Kunreal +$146
● open No · $8.9Kin $8.8Kunreal +$85
● open No · $11.6Kin $26.7Kout $20.3Kunreal +$836
● open No · $6.6Kin $8.3Kout $3.0Kunreal +$753
● open Yes · $7.7Kin $3.9Kunreal +$55
● open No · $4.5Kin $3.7Kunreal +$83
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
● open No · $3.4Kin $3.4Kunreal $-23
● open No · $14.5Kin $3.0Kunreal +$72
● open No · $17.8Kin $2.6Kunreal +$159
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
● open No · $2.2Kin $2.2Kunreal +$6
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
● open No · $6.1Kin $2.0Kunreal $-62
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
● open No · $4.6Kin $1.9Kunreal $-61
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
● open No · $1.8Kin $2.3Kout $571unreal +$27
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
● open No · $4.0Kin $1.5Kunreal +$48
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
● open No · $1.3Kin $1.0Kunreal +$30
● open No · $867in $919unreal $-52
● open No · $6.1Kin $1.0Kunreal +$138
● open No · $739in $722unreal +$17
● open No · $521in $465unreal +$57
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
● open No · $421in $411unreal +$9
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
● open No · $1.8Kin $434unreal +$50
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
● open No · $391in $381unreal +$9
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?
● open No · $374in $360unreal +$14
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
● open Yes · $21in $78unreal $-57
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?
● open Yes · $37in $45unreal $-8
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
● open No · $1in $128out $169
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
● open Yes · $0in $24unreal $-1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
● open No · $5in $4unreal +$1
● closedout $2.6K
● closedout $2.0K
● closedout $1.2K
● closedout $722
● closedout $655
● closedout $80
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?
● closedin $423out $444
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
● closedin $170out $164
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House ●open Yes· $83.3K | $30.0K | $90.0K | $-1700 | 0 | +$58.3K |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? ●open No· $49.8K | $16.5K | $0 | +$1.4K | 3 | $-15132 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? ●open No· $13.6K | $13.5K | $0 | +$137 | 17 | $-13323 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? ●open No· $25.9K | $11.1K | $0 | +$146 | 6 | $-10974 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? ●open No· $8.9K | $8.8K | $0 | +$85 | 44 | $-8702 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? ●open No· $11.6K | $26.7K | $20.3K | +$836 | 100 | $-5605 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? ●open No· $6.6K | $8.3K | $3.0K | +$753 | 55 | $-4590 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? ●open Yes· $7.7K | $3.9K | $0 | +$55 | 43 | $-3841 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? ●open No· $4.5K | $3.7K | $0 | +$83 | 4 | $-3659 |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? ●open No· $3.4K | $3.4K | $0 | $-23 | 7 | $-3464 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? ●open No· $14.5K | $3.0K | $0 | +$72 | 16 | $-2883 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? ●open No· $17.8K | $2.6K | $0 | +$159 | 19 | $-2403 |
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? ●open No· $2.2K | $2.2K | $0 | +$6 | 1 | $-2222 |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? ●open No· $6.1K | $2.0K | $0 | $-62 | 3 | $-2064 |
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? ●open No· $4.6K | $1.9K | $0 | $-61 | 1 | $-1928 |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? ●open No· $1.8K | $2.3K | $571 | +$27 | 23 | $-1680 |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? ●open No· $4.0K | $1.5K | $0 | +$48 | 3 | $-1447 |
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? ●open No· $1.3K | $1.0K | $0 | +$30 | 1 | $-991 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ●open No· $867 | $919 | $0 | $-52 | 5 | $-971 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? ●open No· $6.1K | $1.0K | $0 | +$138 | 3 | $-870 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? ●open No· $739 | $722 | $0 | +$17 | 1 | $-705 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? ●open No· $521 | $465 | $0 | +$57 | 3 | $-408 |
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? ●open No· $421 | $411 | $0 | +$9 | 1 | $-402 |
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? ●open No· $1.8K | $434 | $0 | +$50 | 1 | $-384 |
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? ●open No· $391 | $381 | $0 | +$9 | 7 | $-372 |
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? ●open No· $374 | $360 | $0 | +$14 | 1 | $-346 |
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? ●open Yes· $21 | $78 | $0 | $-57 | 2 | $-135 |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? ●open Yes· $37 | $45 | $0 | $-8 | 3 | $-53 |
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? ●open No· $1 | $128 | $169 | +$0 | 2 | +$41 |
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? ●open Yes· $0 | $24 | $0 | $-1 | 1 | $-25 |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ●open No· $5 | $4 | $0 | +$1 | 1 | $-4 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? ● closed | $0 | $2.6K | — | 40 | +$2.6K |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $2.0K | — | 0 | +$2.0K |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? ● closed | $0 | $1.2K | — | 24 | +$1.2K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? ● closed | $0 | $722 | — | 18 | +$722 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? ● closed | $0 | $655 | — | 15 | +$655 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $80 | — | 0 | +$80 |
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? ● closed | $423 | $444 | — | 1 | +$21 |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? ● closed | $170 | $164 | — | 4 | $-6 |
Recent Trades (16)
Trading Activity · 90d
4 active days
Category Accuracy
Entry Timing Before Resolution
1d–7d
6 betsunresolved0/0
>7d
9 betsunresolved0/0
Related Wallets · same markets (30d)