PnL by Market (39)17 open22 closed
● open No · $38.8Kin $34.4Kunreal +$4.4K
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
● open Yes · $13.4Kin $14.0Kunreal $-567
● open No · $75out $11.6Kunreal +$8
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
● open No · $2.0Kout $8.1Kunreal +$360
● open Yes · $6.4Kin $9.9Kout $2.5Kunreal $-815
● open No · $9.3Kin $8.7Kunreal +$650
● open No · $8.1Kin $7.4Kunreal +$760
● open No · $6.5Kin $6.1Kunreal +$450
● open No · $2.5Kin $3.0Kunreal $-450
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
● open No · $2.2Kin $2.0Kunreal +$253
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition
● open Yes · $1.2Kout $1.1Kunreal +$146
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting?
● open Yes · $4.3Kin $1.0Kunreal +$204
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
● open No · $435in $420unreal +$15
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
● open No · $61in $66unreal $-6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
● open No · $9in $8unreal +$0
● open Yes · $5in $6unreal $-1
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
● open No · $8in $7unreal +$1
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
● closedout $23.0K
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
● closedin $54.9Kout $70.7K
● closedin $29.9Kout $40.2K
● closedout $9.6K
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
● closedin $7.0Kout $12.3K
● closedout $3.8K
● closedout $2.8K
● closedin $8.4Kout $9.6K
● closedin $7.4Kout $6.8K
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
● closedout $626
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?
● closedout $499
Yoon out of custody by March 31?
● closedout $332
● closedin $9.7Kout $9.9K
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?
● closedout $184
● closedin $710out $622
● closedout $7
● closedout $2
● closedin $8.8Kout $8.8K
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
● closed
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files?
● closed
Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the #1 searched song on Google this year?
● closed
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
● closed
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? ●open No· $38.8K | $34.4K | $0 | +$4.4K | 36 | $-29977 |
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? ●open Yes· $13.4K | $14.0K | $0 | $-567 | 2 | $-14552 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? ●open No· $75 | $0 | $11.6K | +$8 | 3 | +$11.6K |
US strike on Mexico by March 31? ●open No· $2.0K | $0 | $8.1K | +$360 | 6 | +$8.5K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? ●open Yes· $6.4K | $9.9K | $2.5K | $-815 | 4 | $-8196 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? ●open No· $9.3K | $8.7K | $0 | +$650 | 8 | $-8050 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? ●open No· $8.1K | $7.4K | $0 | +$760 | 2 | $-6611 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? ●open No· $6.5K | $6.1K | $0 | +$450 | 7 | $-5650 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? ●open No· $2.5K | $3.0K | $0 | $-450 | 32 | $-3450 |
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? ●open No· $2.2K | $2.0K | $0 | +$253 | 5 | $-1732 |
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition ●open Yes· $1.2K | $0 | $1.1K | +$146 | 3 | +$1.3K |
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting? ●open Yes· $4.3K | $1.0K | $0 | +$204 | 13 | $-801 |
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ●open No· $435 | $420 | $0 | +$15 | 1 | $-405 |
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? ●open No· $61 | $66 | $0 | $-6 | 1 | $-72 |
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? ●open No· $9 | $8 | $0 | +$0 | 1 | $-8 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? ●open Yes· $5 | $6 | $0 | $-1 | 1 | $-7 |
Iran coup attempt by June 30? ●open No· $8 | $7 | $0 | +$1 | 1 | $-7 |
US forces enter Iran by March 7? ● closed | $0 | $23.0K | — | 0 | +$23.0K |
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? ● closed | $54.9K | $70.7K | — | 84 | +$15.8K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? ● closed | $29.9K | $40.2K | — | 84 | +$10.4K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? ● closed | $0 | $9.6K | — | 8 | +$9.6K |
US forces enter Iran by March 14? ● closed | $7.0K | $12.3K | — | 41 | +$5.3K |
| Trump out as President by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $3.8K | — | 1 | +$3.8K |
| Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? ● closed | $0 | $2.8K | — | 42 | +$2.8K |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? ● closed | $8.4K | $9.6K | — | 29 | +$1.2K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? ● closed | $7.4K | $6.8K | — | 4 | $-637 |
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $626 | — | 1 | +$626 |
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? ● closed | $0 | $499 | — | 2 | +$499 |
Yoon out of custody by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $332 | — | 4 | +$332 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? ● closed | $9.7K | $9.9K | — | 14 | +$230 |
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision? ● closed | $0 | $184 | — | 2 | +$184 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? ● closed | $710 | $622 | — | 4 | $-88 |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $7 | — | 2 | +$7 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? ● closed | $0 | $2 | — | 1 | +$2 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? ● closed | $8.8K | $8.8K | — | 32 | $-0 |
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the #1 searched song on Google this year? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Recent Trades (8)
Trading Activity · 90d
3 active days
Category Accuracy
Geopolitics
$99.9K56%5/9
Politics
100%3/3
Entry Timing Before Resolution
1d–7d
3 betsunresolved0/0
>7d
3 betsunresolved0/0
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