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Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $4.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $93.8KEvent: WNBA: 2026 MVP
81.1¢
YES
18.9¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$26.0K trackedsource coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$4.4K@ 81¢·oliman2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $8.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.4K
6h
+$22.4K
tracked
$26.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $13.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 55

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the 2026 WNBA season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 WNBA Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by WNBA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 WNBA season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Women’s National Basketball Association; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $8.4K
6hYES · $22.4K
24hYES · $26.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current81.1¢
VWAP 24h82.5¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d83.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.9K
85¢
$3.5K
80¢
← now
$22.2K
75¢
$258
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

oliman2Yes$13.5K
BUY VWAP 81.3¢·16 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.