UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

● quote 158 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $283.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $223.2KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 38%
24h sample:35 trades$2.6K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 76%
tape 197 min agoofficial metadata 147 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$96
6h
+$251
tracked
$2.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 38% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 76% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 158 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Ramazan Temirov" if Ramazan Temirov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Steve Erceg" if Steve Erceg is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $23 → $376 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$96
6h+$251
24h+$251

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h59.9¢▲ above by 40.0pp
VWAP 7d59.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$311
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$300
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
100.0¢$874.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
100.0¢$823.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$807.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
0.3¢$777.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)
48.5¢$695.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
0.3¢$558.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)
71.5¢$429.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
99.7¢$421.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.