UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)

● quote 6007 min ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $310.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $302.9KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$13.7K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$34.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUroš Medic (NO)$30.5K@ 77¢·0x7b0f…4633

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$12.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$12.8K
6h
−$17.7K
tracked
$66.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$13.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 14 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 6007 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 6013 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Daniel Rodriguez" if Daniel Rodriguez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Uroš Medic at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Uroš Medic" if Uroš Medic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Uroš Medic@ 100.0¢4d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$12.8K
6h−$17.7K
24h−$17.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h18.5¢▼ below by 17.5pp
VWAP 7d18.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.6K
20¢
$51.6K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$13.7K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLUroš Medic (NO)$13.2K@ 99.9¢
hanlun0x9480…7456
🐋—4 days ago
BUYDaniel Rodriguez (YES)$10.7K@ 24.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—4 days ago
BUYUroš Medic (NO)$10.2K@ 77.0¢
hanlun0x9480…7456
🐋—4 days ago
BUYUroš Medic (NO)$30.5K@ 77.0¢0x7b0f…4633🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7b0f…4633Uroš Medic$30.5K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafDaniel Rodriguez$10.7K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·1 fill
hanlunUroš Medic$10.2K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.