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Hamburg European Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Anna Bondar

● quote 80 min ago
Finance→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $467.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Hamburg European Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Anna Bondar
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection55Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:263 trades$76.2K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 80%
tape 100 min agoofficial metadata 80 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.0K·2 wallets·$12.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAnna Bondar (NO)$24.6K@ 100¢·0x26b4…b8a9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$33.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$33.4K
6h
+$28.7K
tracked
$76.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$4.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 80 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 100 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 80 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elina Avanesyan and Anna Bondar in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elina Avanesyan' if Elina Avanesyan advances against Anna Bondar. This market will resolve to 'Anna Bondar' if Anna Bondar advances against Elina Avanesyan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.4pp · near-book depth $1.2K → $46.7K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$33.4K
6h+$28.7K
24h+$28.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h31.9¢▼ below by 31.8pp
VWAP 7d31.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.0K
80¢
$1.5K
75¢
$8.0K
70¢
$349
65¢
$3.9K
60¢
$2.8K
55¢
$7.2K
50¢
$552
45¢
$566
40¢
$316
35¢
$1.3K
30¢
$557
25¢
$0
20¢
$132
15¢
$162
10¢
$1.4K
5¢
$117
0¢
← now
$30.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAnna Bondar (NO)$24.6K@ 99.9¢0x26b4…b8a9🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.