Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

● quote 140 min ago
FinanceCloses: about 22 hoursLiquidity: $8.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $7.9MEvent: Fed Decision in July?
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly59Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 29 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:64 trades$78.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 146 min agoofficial metadata 141 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $177.6K·29 wallets(8🐋)·$1.0M gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$92.5K@ 19¢·Erasmus.

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$72.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$72.4K
6h
−$72.4K
tracked
$78.1K

29 verified profitable wallets: −$177.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • Executable quote is 140 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 146 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-29 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x71ed…d3382 linked markets · $619.0K gross
foodenjoyer2 linked markets · $473.8K gross
timetowander5 linked markets · $353.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY YES@ 78.3¢1d ago
15m STALLED -0.5pp1h STALLED -0.6pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY YES@ 79.4¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.2pp1h STALLED -2.1pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 78.7¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.5pp1h STALLED -0.5pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 20.4¢1d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +0.3pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$72.4K
6h$72.4K
24h$72.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h99.9¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d76.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$78.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$677.0K
75¢
$1.4M
70¢
$2.1M
65¢
$176
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLYES$20.7K@ 99.9¢0x4f5b…d411🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$12.4K@ 78.2¢0x8663…cfac🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$83.2K@ 79.4¢0xbe18…3be4🐋1 day ago
BUYNO$92.5K@ 18.5¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 79.6¢0x0f47…d66e🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 79.4¢0xdc96…2791🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 76.4¢0x0f47…d66e🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$11.2K@ 74.6¢0xdcee…bda5🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$14.8K@ 75.4¢0x84d1…2c48🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 76.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$10.9K@ 75.0¢0x9d9e…1c79🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$19.6K@ 77.6¢0x3a70…2828🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$33.1K@ 73.3¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$15.9K@ 72.3¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$17.9K@ 71.7¢0xe907…cff6🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$10.3K@ 71.6¢0x5d9f…b50e🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$30.9K@ 70.6¢0x0f47…d66e🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$17.8K@ 71.3¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$16.4K@ 28.9¢0xe639…082a🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$17.3K@ 71.1¢0x8b6b…afd5🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$11.9K@ 28.9¢0xfd2b…8e50🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$21.6K@ 71.1¢
ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35
🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$10.7K@ 71.1¢
Melody6260xecaa…77a9
🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$10.7K@ 71.2¢0x8b6b…afd5🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$14.6K@ 73.2¢0x1760…56ec🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$14.7K@ 73.2¢0x84d1…2c48🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$12.4K@ 71.9¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$13.5K@ 27.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$26.9K@ 26.9¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$13.4K@ 26.9¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$26.7K@ 26.7¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$35.6K@ 74.5¢0xe907…cff6🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$26.2K@ 72.9¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$10.6K@ 73.4¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$13.1K@ 72.8¢0x6302…7917🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$14.2K@ 72.3¢0x0f47…d66e🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$11.3K@ 71.9¢0xcbf3…ee91🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$72.0K@ 72.0¢
JAHODA0x0e5b…a593
🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$18.2K@ 72.7¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$14.2K@ 70.9¢
JAHODA0x0e5b…a593
🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$23.9K@ 70.9¢0x8e76…448a🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$10.8K@ 71.9¢0x8e76…448a🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$13.7K@ 73.5¢
tsekinming010x69aa…8847
🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$10.3K@ 77.1¢0x71ed…d338🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$10.0K@ 77.3¢0x71ed…d338🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$21.7K@ 77.3¢0x71ed…d338🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$15.7K@ 78.1¢0x71ed…d338🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$23.7K@ 78.9¢0x71ed…d338🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$13.6K@ 80.1¢0xf958…db13🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$11.2K@ 80.0¢
crypto-ericwu20xd967…1409
🐋2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

foodenjoyerYes$211.2K
BUY VWAP 73.2¢·7 fills
0xe907…cff6Yes$196.2K
BUY VWAP 77.5¢·336 fills
Erasmus.No$132.7K
BUY VWAP 20.4¢·3 fills
quavooYes$108.5K
BUY VWAP 75.6¢·396 fills
0xbe18…3be4Yes$83.2K
BUY VWAP 79.4¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 27.4¢·30 fills
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·13 fills
0x8e76…448aYes$49.5K
BUY VWAP 79.8¢·2 fills
0x0f47…d66eYes$47.8K
BUY VWAP 75.9¢·9 fills
0x56ad…f13eYes$46.0K
BUY VWAP 80.4¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.