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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Finance→Politics→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $3.8MOfficial 24h Vol: $7.6MEvent: Fed Decision in September?
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$249.5K@ 100¢·0xe639…082a

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 99.9¢19d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 99.9¢21d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.1pp
POSITION CHANGESELL NO@ 99.8¢21d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -0.1pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 99.9¢21d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.1pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $557.0K
24hNO · $486.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d0.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$3.9M

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.8K@ 99.9¢
JJo0xc408…4675
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$172.6K@ 99.9¢
WinterIsLeaving0x5053…19de
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$50.0K@ 99.9¢0xda68…6b7b🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$12.5K@ 99.9¢
Andorra90x2b87…376f
🐋—19 days ago
SELLNO$29.9K@ 99.8¢
gokol0x7a35…2744
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$59.9K@ 99.9¢
Vespuccii0x712f…9fe6
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 99.9¢
The-Joker0x9aeb…2729
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$195.6K@ 99.9¢
b4k9xj2wh0x521a…d12f
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 99.9¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$36.5K@ 99.9¢
0330330330xd1c7…1d2b
🐋—19 days ago
SELLNO$16.0K@ 99.8¢
chriszyy30x052f…53fb
🐋—19 days ago
SELLNO$21.3K@ 99.8¢
chriszyy30x052f…53fb
🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$28.4K@ 99.8¢
chriszyy30x052f…53fb
🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$37.9K@ 99.8¢
chriszyy30x052f…53fb
🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$50.5K@ 99.8¢
chriszyy30x052f…53fb
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 99.9¢
Paul9739730xa108…abd3
🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$24.5K@ 99.8¢
Debosnys0x7e30…1e50
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$99.8K@ 99.8¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$129.7K@ 99.8¢0xe639…082a🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$249.5K@ 99.8¢0xe639…082a🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$199.6K@ 99.8¢0xe639…082a🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$100.1K@ 99.8¢0xad96…d498🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$35.1K@ 99.8¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$22.6K@ 99.8¢
Etak0x915a…b23c
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$29.9K@ 99.7¢
yingxer0xded8…ca0f
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$98.8K@ 99.8¢
0330330330xd1c7…1d2b
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$98.8K@ 99.8¢
0330330330xd1c7…1d2b
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$29.9K@ 99.7¢
yingxer0xded8…ca0f
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$124.6K@ 99.7¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$19.9K@ 99.7¢
tianjiyuyunzhilu0xc757…ccfc
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$29.9K@ 99.7¢
Abdoulay0x59d7…ba8e
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$99.7K@ 99.7¢
ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35
🐋—22 days ago
SELLNO$10.5K@ 99.6¢
anonboi20xa099…b806
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$19.9K@ 99.7¢
Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$50.0K@ 99.7¢
Dafu07150x9351…9e4d
🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$50.0K@ 99.7¢
Dafu07150x9351…9e4d
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$39.8K@ 99.6¢0xad96…d498🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$134.5K@ 99.6¢0xad96…d498🐋—24 days ago
BUYNO$22.1K@ 99.6¢
debased0x24c8…23e1
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$12.4K@ 99.6¢
DavidTrezeguet0xc88e…f3e1
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$50.4K@ 99.6¢
xrr670x2e3f…6d1b
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$27.9K@ 99.5¢
gokol0x7a35…2744
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$21.9K@ 99.4¢
gokol0x7a35…2744
🐋—27 days ago
SELLNO$11.4K@ 99.6¢
BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c
🐋—28 days ago
SELLNO$115.9K@ 99.6¢0x8b4b…541b🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 99.7¢
anonboi20xa099…b806
🐋—29 days ago
SELLNO$203.1K@ 99.6¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—30 days ago
BUYNO$13.1K@ 99.4¢
Andorra90x2b87…376f
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$25.1K@ 99.5¢
xrr670x2e3f…6d1b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$25.1K@ 99.5¢
xrr670x2e3f…6d1b
🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.