Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

● quote 290 min ago
FinanceCloses: 26 daysLiquidity: $845.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: Fed Decision in September?
1.2¢
YES
98.8¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly9Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2137 trades$915.4K trackedsource coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 297 min agoofficial metadata 291 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $16.9K·4 wallets·$16.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$791.4K@ 99¢·TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.4K
6h
−$873.6K
tracked
$915.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$16.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 290 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 297 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 291 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TheReturnOfDarthMaul3 linked markets · $1.1M gross
timetowander5 linked markets · $182.1K gross
0xf559…f4622 linked markets · $130.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY No@ 98.8¢9h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.4K
6h$873.6K
24h$867.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.2¢
VWAP 24h1.1¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d1.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1.9M

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$79.2K@ 99.0¢
ThePrinceThatWasPromised0xc3ca…688e
🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYNO$791.4K@ 98.9¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYNO$51.3K@ 98.7¢0xc0cd…0aa9🐋1 day ago
BUYNO$197.3K@ 98.6¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋1 day ago
BUYNO$63.0K@ 98.9¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋6 days ago
BUYNO$49.1K@ 98.3¢
ThePrinceThatWasPromised0xc3ca…688e
🐋14 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BUY VWAP 98.9¢·3 fills
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
plumbisNo$63.4K
BUY VWAP 98.9¢·2 fills
BUY VWAP 98.7¢·2 fills
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.