Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

● quote 46 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $124.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $225.6KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
93.5¢
YES
6.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:49 trades$26.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 47 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$80·2 wallets·$102 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$22.8K@ 47¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.5K
6h
+$2.8K
tracked
$26.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$80 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 46 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 47 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets, scheduled for July 31 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 48.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +43.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $68.8K$268 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.5K
6h+$2.8K
24h+$25.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.5¢
VWAP 24h50.6¢▲ above by 42.9pp
VWAP 7d50.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$601
85¢
$418
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$82
45¢
$23.2K
40¢
$43
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$22.8K@ 47.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
16.5¢$684.4Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
83.0¢$342.1Kpriority41Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
97.0¢$276.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$274.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
1.9¢$257.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
39.5¢$246.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics
56.5¢$245.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Miami Marlins$22.8K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.