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Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves

● quote 14 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $238.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $257.5KEvent: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
1.6¢
YES
98.5¢
NO
0.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection67Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets44Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$13.1K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $50·3 wallets·$111 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWashington Nationals (YES)$9.9K@ 43¢·0x26b4…b8a9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$8.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.7K
6h
+$8.9K
tracked
$13.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$50 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 14 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 45 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for July 31 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1 → $15 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8.7K
6h+$8.9K
24h+$8.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.6¢
VWAP 24h39.1¢▼ below by 37.5pp
VWAP 7d39.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$689
40¢
$10.6K
35¢
$1
30¢
$6
25¢
$570
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1.3K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.