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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $82.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $321.3KEvent: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
38.5¢
YES
61.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:127 trades$69.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 22s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $51.6K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$52.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$51.8K@ 59¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
−$39.5K
tracked
$69.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$51.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 00:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 1 at 8:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $60.8K gross
0xdbdd…a5de2 linked markets · $3.0K gross
0x6701…d7d22 linked markets · $218 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY San Diego Padres2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 59.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $12.0K → $23 · 8s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.2K
6h−$39.5K
24h−$39.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h39.9¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d39.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$30
45¢
$638
40¢
$64.4K
35¢
← now
$1.7K
30¢
$184
25¢
$12
20¢
$890
15¢
$166
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.5K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Francisco Giants (YES)$12.0K@ 41.0¢0x1b20…3ab0🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$51.8K@ 59.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafSan Diego Padres$51.8K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
0x1b20…3ab0San Francisco Giants$12.0K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.