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Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-15?

● quote 7079 min ago
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $178.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $374.9KEvent: Charlotte FC vs. Columbus Crew
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly48Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.7K·3 wallets·$19.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$30.6K@ 47¢·beachboy4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.2K
6h
+$79.6K
tracked
$154.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$11.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 48 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 7079 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 7100 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 15, 2026 If Charlotte FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 54.0¢5d ago
15m INVALIDATED -40.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2.2K
6h+$79.6K
24h+$79.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h48.5¢▲ above by 51.4pp
VWAP 7d48.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.7K
90¢
$164
85¢
$3
80¢
$1.7K
75¢
$24
70¢
$115
65¢
$6.5K
60¢
$360
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$109.3K
40¢
$33.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$15.3K@ 48.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$30.6K@ 47.2¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$14.5K@ 46.2¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Yes$72.4K
BUY VWAP 47.2¢·5 fills
justbusiness1No$15.5K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.