Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

● quote 29 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $201.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:375 trades$785.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 37 min agoofficial metadata 32 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $2.1K·2 wallets·$11.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$35.0K@ 35¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$133.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$133.6K
6h
−$5.6K
tracked
$785.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$2.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +31.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 29 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 37 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 32 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 19:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and Team Falcons in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win Game 1 against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against Nigma Galaxy. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $94.0K gross
0x4ebc…a33d2 linked markets · $24.7K gross
0x1896…a7d62 linked markets · $23.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Falcons@ 69.0¢59m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 62.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 66.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nigma Galaxy@ 35.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $41$1.4K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$133.6K
6h$5.6K
24h$5.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.5¢▼ below by 20.4pp
VWAP 7d20.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$8.1K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$12.5K
35¢
$241.2K
30¢
$138.8K
25¢
$33.4K
20¢
$5.2K
15¢
$44.1K
10¢
$13.0K
5¢
$16.8K
0¢
← now
$278.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$15.0K@ 99.9¢0xcf60…a6f5🐋38 minutes ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$14.3K@ 99.9¢
gxxyy0x4aec…4ce9
🐋39 minutes ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$13.9K@ 99.9¢0x2931…7b81🐋40 minutes ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$15.8K@ 99.9¢0x47e8…efdc🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$17.6K@ 99.9¢0xed44…4f76🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$22.3K@ 99.9¢0x6f04…1fb0🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$17.3K@ 99.9¢0x4ebc…a33d🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$18.4K@ 99.9¢0x9166…b479🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$10.6K@ 99.9¢0xdc3f…5e0d🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$15.4K@ 66.0¢0x3eeb…5abf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$35.0K@ 35.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$10.4K@ 65.0¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.0K@ 65.0¢0x9166…b479🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$25.0K@ 61.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.0K@ 62.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115Nigma Galaxy$51.4K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·4 fills
0xe16d…5e30Team Falcons$50.0K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·4 fills
0x19fb…bd68Team Falcons$24.4K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·17 fills
0x2929…1dd0Team Falcons$23.0K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·5 fills
Sunshine.SmileTeam Falcons$20.2K
BUY VWAP 64.3¢·2 fills
0xde24…4dedTeam Falcons$17.0K
BUY VWAP 66.9¢·4 fills
0x9166…b479Team Falcons$16.9K
BUY VWAP 64.7¢·2 fills
0x3eeb…5abfTeam Falcons$15.4K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0x6f04…1fb0Team Falcons$14.5K
BUY VWAP 74.2¢·3 fills
0x5a56…10f5Team Falcons$10.3K
BUY VWAP 65.2¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.