LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 81 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $647.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $999.9KEvent: LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets85Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:319 trades$602.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 85 min agoofficial metadata 83 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $83.4K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$98.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$49.2K@ 100¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$128.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$128.8K
6h
−$175.3K
tracked
$602.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$83.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +54.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 81 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 85 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 83 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between LGD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 20 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against LGD Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x292f…7fc23 linked markets · $105.4K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $99.7K gross
crypto-ericwu23 linked markets · $74.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +50.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $69$863 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$128.8K
6h$175.3K
24h$177.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h16.9¢▼ below by 16.9pp
VWAP 7d16.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$10.1K
60¢
$1.4K
55¢
$10.1K
50¢
$2.9K
45¢
$59.4K
40¢
$16.9K
35¢
$157
30¢
$82
25¢
$110.8K
20¢
$26.4K
15¢
$33.2K
10¢
$25.7K
5¢
$11.1K
0¢
← now
$216.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBilibili Gaming (NO)$12.0K@ 99.9¢
RoshanMVP0xa16a…33a1
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$49.2K@ 99.9¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$13.6K@ 99.9¢0x3090…be73🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$17.4K@ 99.0¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$13.7K@ 96.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$14.0K@ 74.0¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$10.4K@ 75.0¢0xb132…6b5e🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$14.3K@ 74.0¢0xc69b…2076🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Bilibili Gaming$73.3K
BUY VWAP 78.3¢·5 fills
hd777Bilibili Gaming$19.7K
BUY VWAP 96.5¢·3 fills
Sisyphus.Bilibili Gaming$17.4K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
0xf2f2…0550Bilibili Gaming$16.2K
BUY VWAP 98.7¢·3 fills
0xc69b…2076Bilibili Gaming$14.3K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
hurricanBilibili Gaming$14.0K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0x3090…be73Bilibili Gaming$13.6K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0xf030…12e2Bilibili Gaming$11.2K
BUY VWAP 81.1¢·5 fills
0xe907…cff6Bilibili Gaming$10.8K
BUY VWAP 55.3¢·6 fills
0xb132…6b5eBilibili Gaming$10.4K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.