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Commanders vs. Eagles

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: 16 minutesLiquidity: $199.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $209.2KEvent: Commanders vs. Eagles
31.5¢
Commanders
68.5¢
Eagles
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$121.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 47s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Eagles · $40.2K net·7 wallets·$46.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYEagles$20.0K@ 70¢·jaytee158

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Eagles SETUP
What the tape says

Eagles pressure: $34.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.9K
6h
−$39.4K
tracked
$121.4K

7 verified profitable wallets: Eagles · $40.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 73

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Eagles or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders".

•If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25PM ET: If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp2 linked markets · $151.9K gross
Herdonia2 linked markets · $32.0K gross
maz262 linked markets · $23.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Eagles@ 70.0¢26m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Eagles@ 70.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Eagles@ 69.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Commanders DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $408 → $1.3K · 43s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Commanders; negative values favor Eagles. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hEagles · $34.9K
6hEagles · $39.4K
24hEagles · $115.4K

Commanders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Commanders price. Eagles fills are converted to the complementary Commanders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h30.6¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d30.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Commanders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$121.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYEagles$20.0K@ 70.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYEagles$17.3K@ 69.0¢
JUSTINHERBERTMVP0x86e9…4cdf
🐋—about 15 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HerdoniaEagles$30.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·5 fills
jaytee158Eagles$20.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill
JUSTINHERBERTMVPEagles$17.3K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
maz26Eagles$10.7K
BUY VWAP 69.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.