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Spread: Raiders (-3.5)

Sports→Settlement: RaidersLiquidity: $44.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $192.2KEvent: Dolphins vs. Raiders
100.0¢
Raiders payout
0.0¢
Dolphins payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:1 trades$73.8K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 64%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1258 min agoofficial metadata 1154 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raiders · $6.1K net·3 wallets·$6.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRaiders$73.8K@ 100¢·SS787878

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Raiders. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-13 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RN12 linked markets · $38.9K gross
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $35.3K gross
suitcase66282 linked markets · $7.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Raiders UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $3.8K → $946 · 48s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raiders; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaiders · $0
6hDolphins · $37.6K
24hDolphins · $41.6K

Raiders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raiders price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary Raiders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h78.3¢▲ above by 21.7pp
VWAP 7d75.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raiders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$73.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$52.2K
40¢
$10.6K
35¢
$190
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLRaiders$73.8K@ 99.9¢
SS7878780xdd7e…0be3
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYRaiders$34.0K@ 46.0¢
SS7878780xdd7e…0be3
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SS787878Raiders$34.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.