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Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-08-19?

● quote 1136 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 22 hoursLiquidity: $677.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $839.8KEvent: Colorado Rapids SC vs. Los Angeles FC
99.9¢
YES
6.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:131 trades$355.6K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1148 min agoofficial metadata 1132 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.9K·4 wallets·$27.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$50.1K@ 47¢·beachboy4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$454
6h
+$122.9K
tracked
$355.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$10.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1136 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1148 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1132 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 01:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 19, 2026 If Colorado Rapids SC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $31.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 46.0¢21h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 46.0¢21h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY NO@ 56.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 57.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $97 → $659 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$454
6h+$122.9K
24h+$122.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h45.3¢▲ above by 54.6pp
VWAP 7d45.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$531
90¢
$7
85¢
$13
80¢
$30
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$31
65¢
$5.6K
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$197.7K
40¢
$146.6K
35¢
$2.1K
30¢
$2.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$50.1K@ 47.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYYES$31.1K@ 47.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYYES$33.7K@ 45.7¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYYES$14.3K@ 46.4¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYYES$15.9K@ 46.5¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYNO$18.4K@ 57.0¢0x531b…32b6🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 56.0¢0xb727…2a9d🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYNO$38.1K@ 58.0¢0xb727…2a9d🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 42.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 22 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Yes$145.1K
BUY VWAP 46.6¢·5 fills
0xb727…2a9dNo$52.1K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·2 fills
kekasaurYes$33.2K
BUY VWAP 42.5¢·4 fills
0x531b…32b6No$24.2K
BUY VWAP 56.8¢·2 fills
quavooYes$20.8K
BUY VWAP 45.2¢·9 fills
0x2a69…d2f7No$16.2K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·7 fills
0x2c33…0563Yes$13.5K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.