LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner

● quote 54 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $748.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $965.7KEvent: LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:226 trades$371.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata 55 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$17.7K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$17.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$17.8K@ 100¢·254321758

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$15.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.3K
6h
−$13.7K
tracked
$371.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$17.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -50.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 64 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 55 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and Kiwoom DRX in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win Game 2 against Kiwoom DRX. This market will resolve to "Kiwoom DRX" if Kiwoom DRX win Game 2 against Nongshim Red Force. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
2543217582 linked markets · $164.8K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $68.0K gross
ChonkyChocolateCake2 linked markets · $43.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Kiwoom DRX@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $128$21 · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$15.3K
6h$13.7K
24h$13.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h68.9¢▲ above by 31.1pp
VWAP 7d68.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$116.4K
90¢
$17.3K
85¢
$0
80¢
$488
75¢
$118
70¢
$12.0K
65¢
$137
60¢
$30.3K
55¢
$58.3K
50¢
$24.3K
45¢
$45.4K
40¢
$49.1K
35¢
$16.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$10.9K@ 99.9¢0x2383…072f🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$12.0K@ 99.9¢0x1660…5598🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$12.0K@ 99.9¢
2543217580x04b1…d224
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$17.8K@ 99.7¢
2543217580x04b1…d224
🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$10.7K@ 99.9¢
2543217580x04b1…d224
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYKiwoom DRX (NO)$11.1K@ 59.2¢
ChonkyChocolateCake0xf23c…9f81
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$17.6K@ 58.0¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

254321758Nongshim Red Force$43.3K
BUY VWAP 98.7¢·6 fills
ChonkyChocolateCakeKiwoom DRX$24.4K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·4 fills
254321758Kiwoom DRX$21.8K
BUY VWAP 50.2¢·3 fills
zb8Nongshim Red Force$17.6K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
ChonkyChocolateCakeNongshim Red Force$12.9K
BUY VWAP 58.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.