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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $207.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $289.8KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
96.5¢
YES
3.5¢
NO
0.7¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$105.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$25.0K@ 61¢·0xeafc…e4c4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$28.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$28.1K
6h
−$34.6K
tracked
$105.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$6 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -57.1pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 14 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 61.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $302 → $1.1K · 10s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$28.1K
6h−$34.6K
24h−$33.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.5¢
VWAP 24h47.5¢▲ above by 49.0pp
VWAP 7d47.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10
90¢
$0
85¢
$15
80¢
$0
75¢
$13.0K
70¢
$0
65¢
$20
60¢
$155
55¢
$9.3K
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$9.3K
40¢
$34.0K
35¢
$37.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$25.0K@ 60.9¢0xeafc…e4c4🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xeafc…e4c4Tampa Bay Rays$25.0K
BUY VWAP 60.9¢·1 fill
0xbca0…9705Baltimore Orioles$17.5K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.