Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

● quote 6 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $207.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $333.2KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
18.5¢
YES
81.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly87Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:84 trades$172.4K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$33.7K@ 47¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.3K
6h
+$79.4K
tracked
$172.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$4.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 18 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 00:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros, scheduled for August 14 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $27.9K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $16.2K gross
0x88c5…48152 linked markets · $1.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 86.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Seattle Mariners@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -28.0pp1h INVALIDATED -47.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Seattle Mariners@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -28.0pp1h INVALIDATED -47.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Seattle Mariners@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -28.0pp1h INVALIDATED -47.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $60$122 · 11s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$4.3K
6h+$79.4K
24h+$83.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h45.9¢▼ below by 27.4pp
VWAP 7d45.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4
60¢
$26.8K
55¢
$41.9K
50¢
$13.4K
45¢
$56.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$25.1K
10¢
$8.7K
5¢
$487
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYHouston Astros (NO)$10.6K@ 84.0¢0x5268…135d🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$14.8K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$25.8K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$20.2K@ 62.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$33.7K@ 47.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafSeattle Mariners$101.0K
BUY VWAP 54.6¢·5 fills
0x5268…135dHouston Astros$18.2K
BUY VWAP 66.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.