Texas Rangers vs. Athletics

● quote 39 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $198.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $450.5KEvent: Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
14.5¢
YES
85.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority41Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%
24h sample:107 trades$208.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 43 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAthletics (NO)$100.0K@ 49¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.3K
6h
−$34.9K
tracked
$208.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 41

Since latest liquidity absorption: +39.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 39 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 43 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 39.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Athletics, scheduled for August 14 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $8.4K gross
0x56cc…d5892 linked markets · $27 gross
0xb6dd…7af92 linked markets · $26 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Athletics2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Athletics@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +30.0pp1h CONFIRMED +38.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Athletics@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +33.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -34.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $6$1 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$1.3K
6h$34.9K
24h$34.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.5¢
VWAP 24h50.9¢▼ below by 36.4pp
VWAP 7d50.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$193.2K
45¢
$7.9K
40¢
$6.8K
35¢
$81
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$822
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$16.2K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYAthletics (NO)$100.0K@ 49.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$12.5K@ 52.0¢0xeafc…e4c4🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$30.3K@ 51.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$427.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
24.5¢$346.8Kpriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
41.5¢$339.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
75.5¢$328.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
33.5¢$312.3Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.9¢$291.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Athletics$100.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
texaskidTexas Rangers$30.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafTexas Rangers$19.6K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·4 fills
0xeafc…e4c4Texas Rangers$12.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.