Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels

● quote 13 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $236.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $436.8KEvent: Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
82.5¢
YES
17.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:181 trades$159.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 18 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $764·3 wallets·$5.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLos Angeles Angels (NO)$33.3K@ 51¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.8K
6h
−$95.4K
tracked
$159.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$764 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 46

Since latest liquidity absorption: -50.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 13 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 01:38 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels, scheduled for August 14 at 9:38PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels" if the Los Angeles Angels win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $107.7K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $43.9K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $7.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Los Angeles Angels@ 68.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -52.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Los Angeles Angels@ 27.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp1h CONFIRMED +23.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Los Angeles Angels@ 52.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp1h CONFIRMED +18.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Los Angeles Angels@ 57.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $25$30.0K · 14s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$6.8K
6h$95.4K
24h$88.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current82.5¢
VWAP 24h54.2¢▲ above by 28.3pp
VWAP 7d54.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$993
80¢
← now
$3.9K
75¢
$11.3K
70¢
$3.9K
65¢
$14.4K
60¢
$575
55¢
$15.6K
50¢
$24.3K
45¢
$75.5K
40¢
$3.0K
35¢
$1.3K
30¢
$2.3K
25¢
$2.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLos Angeles Angels (NO)$14.7K@ 44.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYLos Angeles Angels (NO)$18.8K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYLos Angeles Angels (NO)$33.3K@ 51.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafLos Angeles Angels$88.3K
BUY VWAP 40.3¢·7 fills
0x5268…135dKansas City Royals$11.0K
BUY VWAP 55.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.