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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $35.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $66.8KEvent: Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
6.7¢
YES
93.3¢
NO
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:16 trades$21.9K trackedsource coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $3.2K net·2 wallets·$3.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$6.5K@ 91¢·solluna

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
DISPUTED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-01 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.3pp · near-book depth $0 → $262 · 43s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2.1K
6hYES · $3.5K
24hNO · $4.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.7¢
VWAP 24h17.1¢▼ below by 10.4pp
VWAP 7d14.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$4.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.7K
10¢
$7.7K
5¢
← now
$17.6K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.