New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 57 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $327.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $221.0KEvent: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
61.5¢
YES
38.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$92.7K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 61 min agoofficial metadata 60 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $25.4K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$42.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$27.0K@ 51¢·0x3170…c6a0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
−$16.7K
tracked
$92.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$25.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 57 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 61 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 60 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 22:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for August 19 at 6:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $11.5K gross
0x0182…34ea2 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY New York Yankees@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 49.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $40.9K$43 · 33s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$1.1K
6h$16.7K
24h$12.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h51.2¢▲ above by 10.3pp
VWAP 7d51.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$88.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.1K
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$27.0K@ 51.0¢0x3170…c6a0🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$17.5K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$11.3K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
100.0¢$2.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
0.1¢$891.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
72.5¢$594.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$375.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
47.5¢$370.9Kpriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
37.5¢$313.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
11.5¢$269.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Baltimore Orioles$28.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills
0x3170…c6a0New York Yankees$27.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.