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Stoke City FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $78.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $106.1KEvent: Stoke City FC vs. Hull City AFC - More Markets
37.0¢
Over
63.0¢
Under
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$38.5K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 126 min agoofficial metadata 39s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$8.3K@ 45¢·bigspending

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$21.1K
tracked
$38.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Under · $6.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 126 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.efl.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Stoke City FC and Hull City AFC combine to score 3 or more goals in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) game between Stoke City FC and Hull City AFC, scheduled for August 25 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Stoke City FC and Hull City AFC combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on efl.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: Over UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $257 → $4.1K · 56s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $21.1K
24hUnder · $21.1K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.0¢
VWAP 24h45.9¢▼ below by 8.9pp
VWAP 7d45.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$38.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

us391Under$17.5K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.