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Valorant: Nova Esports vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $80.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $131.8KEvent: Valorant: Nova Esports vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs
87.0¢
YES
13.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly13Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$58.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 14s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNova Esports (YES)$25.9K@ 63¢·0x65c1…2988

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$144
6h
+$21.9K
tracked
$58.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$3.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between Nova Esports and TEC Esports in the VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nova Esports" if Nova Esports win the match against TEC Esports. This market will resolve to "TEC Esports" if TEC Esports win the match against Nova Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nova Esports@ 63.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h CONFIRMED +21.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nova Esports@ 63.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $2 → $5 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$144
6h+$21.9K
24h+$41.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current87.0¢
VWAP 24h62.5¢▲ above by 24.5pp
VWAP 7d62.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$1
80¢
$38
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$19
60¢
$58.2K
55¢
$10
50¢
$161
45¢
$25
40¢
$6
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNova Esports (YES)$25.9K@ 63.0¢0x65c1…2988🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNova Esports (YES)$15.5K@ 62.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋—about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x65c1…2988Nova Esports$25.9K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
skyman44Nova Esports$15.5K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.