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LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $606.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $574.0KEvent: LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:133 trades$243.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$25.2K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$92.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNinjas in Pyjamas (YES)$36.1K@ 75¢·0xf201…527e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
−$7.1K
tracked
$243.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: +$25.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $81.9K gross
solo888882 linked markets · $57.6K gross
1111111111153 linked markets · $51.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Ninjas in Pyjamas@ 99.9¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Ninjas in Pyjamas@ 82.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Invictus Gaming@ 29.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Ninjas in Pyjamas@ 51.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +24.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $53 → $172 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.1K
6h−$7.1K
24h−$8.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h74.9¢▲ above by 25.0pp
VWAP 7d74.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$69.0K
90¢
$1.2K
85¢
$2.8K
80¢
$11
75¢
$43.4K
70¢
$67.2K
65¢
$1.2K
60¢
$5
55¢
$227
50¢
$2.9K
45¢
$54.0K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNinjas in Pyjamas (YES)$15.1K@ 99.9¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLNinjas in Pyjamas (YES)$25.9K@ 74.0¢0xf201…527e🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNinjas in Pyjamas (YES)$36.1K@ 75.0¢0xf201…527e🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$11.0K@ 29.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNinjas in Pyjamas (YES)$16.9K@ 48.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf201…527eNinjas in Pyjamas$41.4K
BUY VWAP 74.9¢·4 fills
111111111115Ninjas in Pyjamas$29.6K
BUY VWAP 50.6¢·3 fills
0xe907…cff6Invictus Gaming$29.5K
BUY VWAP 29.4¢·8 fills
hd777Ninjas in Pyjamas$10.7K
BUY VWAP 97.8¢·3 fills
Edwardkang3080Ninjas in Pyjamas$10.0K
BUY VWAP 98.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.