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LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner

● quote 22s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $675.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $882.7KEvent: LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets9Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:194 trades$421.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $10.0K·9 wallets(2🐋)·$106.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJD Gaming (YES)$76.3K@ 99¢·0xe907…cff6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$89.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$89.5K
6h
−$46.5K
tracked
$421.4K

9 verified profitable wallets: −$10.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between JD Gaming and Top Esports in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win Game 1 against Top Esports. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 1 against JD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $167.9K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $19.9K gross
vtcchampion522 linked markets · $16.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY JD Gaming@ 100.0¢32m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY JD Gaming@ 48.0¢32m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY JD Gaming@ 31.0¢32m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY JD Gaming@ 46.0¢52m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $5.5K → $3.9K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$89.5K
6h−$46.5K
24h−$46.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h77.0¢▲ above by 22.9pp
VWAP 7d77.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$236.3K
90¢
$3.2K
85¢
$0
80¢
$8.5K
75¢
$9.6K
70¢
$4.5K
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.4K
55¢
$7.7K
50¢
$3.0K
45¢
$75.0K
40¢
$5.0K
35¢
$51.1K
30¢
$11.2K
25¢
$3.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLJD Gaming (YES)$76.3K@ 99.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJD Gaming (YES)$39.6K@ 99.0¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTop Esports (NO)$10.6K@ 62.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJD Gaming (YES)$45.7K@ 48.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJD Gaming (YES)$14.8K@ 48.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
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LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner
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Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe907…cff6JD Gaming$62.6K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·5 fills
IMAREALPERSONJD Gaming$40.9K
BUY VWAP 94.7¢·2 fills
fkgggg2mouzfuriaJD Gaming$17.9K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·2 fills
JaJa888JD Gaming$13.6K
BUY VWAP 70.9¢·5 fills
0x2c33…0563Top Esports$10.6K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.